Election Night summary: different destinies for the UK & France; let's not forget the US, and Iran
A landslide victory for Labour (the left) in the UK, as France grapples with countering the far-right, the US shapes up for the presidential elections, and a big win for Iranian reformists.
Hello again!
Slightly late with this election night summary, but I’ve been keeping tabs on the in’s-and-out of the UK General Elections for their House of Commons as well as, of course, France’s legislative elections for their National Assembly (l’Assemblée nationale). A lot of other equally important things have also been unfolding in the US and Iran, so we’ll get to those first, before diving into an analysis of the UK election results and round one of the French législatives.
A US brief: (not-so) Happy Independence Day!
Calls for Biden to step aside after a nightmare presidential debate
If you don’t know, now you know. The Biden-Trump presidential debate took place on 28 June, without a live audience (or even live fact-checking, which doesn’t seem to get mentioned nearly enough as it should on mainstream media) for the first time. After a disastrous performance by Biden, with frequent lapses and stutters, many, including top Democratic donors and officials, are calling for Biden to step aside. It is also important to note, however, that Trump blatantly falsified information and made many… interesting remarks, to say the least.
After months of concern regarding Biden’s cognitive abilities and hence his ability to put up a fight in the presidential elections at the end of the year, things have seemingly reached a boiling point. The debate has led some (if not most) to believe that the Democrats should just let someone else run.
Currently, the Democrats most likely to replace Biden, if that does happen, are VP Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Interestingly, a recent CNN poll has shown that Harris might fare better than Biden if she were to go up against Trump. As for Newsom, substance abuse and the homelessness crisis in California continue to be roadblocks in his political career, as most Californians, both Republican and Democrat, disapprove of his policies. But it is unclear whether such disapproval will stretch to the rest of the country. Whitmer is a name that has come up, but she has rejected the calls for her to enter the campaign and has continued to stand by Biden.
Meanwhile, Democratic donors are withholding millions of dollars in funds from the party, stating that they will only reinstate donations if Biden is no longer in the running. This could pose a problem in the next few months, as parties in the US traditionally dump millions into advertisements and other campaign strategies to back their candidate.
However, others have continued to stand by their decision to vote for Biden. Some believe that voting for Biden is also a simple choice of just voting blue, and others have rightly pointed out that Biden’s presidency doesn’t consist of him alone — his entire team of Democratic staffers run the country together with him. Some others (a growing majority) note that the vote represents more than Biden now — some see it as a vote for democracy itself, and to prevent Trump from rising to power and perhaps transforming the country into a dictatorship, something he has vowed to do — “I’d be a dictator on day one.’
And the fears are not unfounded —
The Supreme Court has handed over unprecedented power to the president
In a move many experts decry as unconstitutional, the conservative-majority Supreme Court has granted ‘presidential immunity’ to the POTUS, meaning that any acts taken by the president while in office can be claimed as ‘official acts’ and hence not subject to legal punishment. Yes, you read that right — the US president is now basically above the law.
The three dissents all came from the liberal justices, and the remaining six (conservative) justices all voted in favour of this move. In Justice Sotomayor’s dissent, she states that this SCOTUS decision has made the president a ‘king above the law’, while Justice Jackson has outlined what this will mean in practical terms — an official act is now defined by the court as acts even beyond a president’s core duties, and an unclear definition of it will most certainly encourage exploitation of such immunity. By prohibiting mention of official acts during a prosecution of unofficial acts, prosecutors will not be able to effectively accuse the president of anything. In Sotomayor’s words, if the president ‘orders the Navy's Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune.’ You may read more about this SCOTUS ruling and the dissenting opinions here.
And we can’t talk about this decision without mentioning the context behind it (unfortunately sorely lacking in mainstream media) and why there is just reason to be concerned about such an unconstitutional decision.
Project 2025
Project 2025 is a manifesto by a conservative think-tank, Heritage Foundation, and despite not being endorsed by the Republican Party officially, many of the people involved in it have close ties to Trump. It outlines what the Republican Party or Trump will do if he is elected president again, and it’s a clear fascist and authoritarian roadmap. With what Trump has been saying and what the Republican Party has been doing (see: Oklahoma ordering schools to teach the Bible with immediate effect), Project 2025 doesn’t deviate too far from what seems to be their plans. And, it reads like a conspiracy theory, but it isn’t.
Some key proposals in Project 2025:
Replacing civil servants with supporters of the ‘next Republican president’ (=Trump)
Authoritarian, Christian nationalist plan to transform the US into an autocracy
No separation of church and state, an absence of civil liberties, the president having unprecedented control over the courts etc
Republican control of the Department of Justice (DOJ), the FBI, the Department of Commerce, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)
Dismantling of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
Favouring fossil fuel production by cutting regulations on climate change
Tax cuts
The abolishment of the Deparment of Education, and the termination or transfer to other agencies of its programmes
Cut funding for Medicare and Medicaid, and rejecting abortion as healthcare
Strike down coverage of emergency contraception under the Affordable Care Act
Prosecution of those who send and receive contraceptives and abortion pills, nationwide
Criminalisation of pornography
The removal of laws against discrimination based on sexuality and gender
The termination of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programmes
The termination of affirmative action programmes
The prosecution of ‘anti-white racism’
The arrest, detention, and deportation of undocumented immigrants living in the US by using the military to capture and place them in internment camps
Capital punishment and the speedy ‘finality’ of those sentences
Just recently, Trump has denied knowing about this, though many of the drafters of the project are linked to him closely.
What’s even more worrying, the Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts has recently remarked:
We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.
Yup. Now watch Civil War (2024) dir. Alex Garland and you’ll see what that can look like.
The project director, Paul Dans, has also said:
[Project 2025 is] systematically preparing to march into office and bring a new army, [of] aligned, trained, and essentially weaponized conservatives ready to do battle against the deep state.
Some have dismissed worry over Project 2025 — it’s clear that this manifesto, which will likely guide Trump’s policies if he is given another term at the end of the year, is broadly unconstitutional and will require the Republicans to have a majority in both the Senate and the House. They claim that even if Trump signs off on executive orders to implement these policies, the Supreme Court will strike them down. However, what they’re forgetting is that the Court now has a conservative-majority and that they’ll likely do whatever Trump wants them to. (Yes, this is how little faith I have in the SCOTUS, and their track record has proven it.) With the presidential immunity they have recently granted, Trump might also be above the courts…
A moveable feast for thought: will Biden step aside, and even if he does, do the Democrats still stand a good chance of winning? What will another Trump term look like, what will America look like?
Iran’s presidential elections
A relative moderate, Masoud Pezeshkian, won the Iranian presidential elections on Saturday, after a run-off vote against hardliner Saeed Jalili. He has pledged to restart negotiations with Western powers and pursue a more open and less isolationist foreign policy with the outside world, and liberalise Iranian society more.
However, in Iran, it is a well-acknowledged fact that the Supreme Leader Khomeini holds much more power than the president in the theocracy, as both religious and political power is mostly vested with Khomeini, who has, of course, pursued an authoritarian, regressive, and violent path governing Iran.
What Pezeshkian can do, however, is play a part in selecting Khomeini’s successor, and perhaps promote somewhere more moderate and liberal. What’s clear, though, is that Pezeshkian will ensure Iran remains a theocracy, as he has little to no power in reforming that aspect of the republic.
A moveable feast for thought: will Iran ever see its own ‘Iranian Spring’? How can the people (and especially the women of Iran) still maintain hope as they live in what seems to be a never-ending cycle of authoritarian rule?
UK General Election wrap-up
Now, let’s shift our attention to Europe. UK’s general election, in which they voted for their next House of Commons, took place on Thursday, as millions of UK citizens headed to the polls. The result? A landslide victory for Labour and party leader Keir Starmer, who is now the first Labour Prime Minister in 14 years, and a devastating defeat for the Tories.
Labour won 411 out of 650 seats, while the Tories only managed to retain 121 seats, a clear reflection of disillusionment after 14 years of Tory rule. This also means that Keir Starmer’s Labour government will be the most powerful one since the days of Tony Blair, who was PM from 1997 to 2007.
Notable losses
Some noteworthy Tory losses were former PM Liz Truss (who lost by only 630 votes), Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, former cabinet leader Jacob Rees-Mogg, former minister Steve Baker (who hilariously told the BBC he was glad to have lost, adding, ‘thank God I’m free’, and that he ‘will not be coming back, you can have that as an exclusive.’)
What went wrong with the Conservatives?
So what did the Tories do wrong?
Ever since Tory rule began in 2010 with David Cameron, the country has been through five PMs and a painful Brexit. Economic shocks, with the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (which made its aftershocks known during Tory rule) and the pandemic, combined with Brexit, made lasting marks on the UK economy. These happened to coincide with the period of Conservative rule. And it was a slow fall for them, culminating in Liz Truss’ (how could we forget her) humiliating 50-day term and then Rishi Sunak’s prime ministership which was marked by a poor public image and accusations of elitism and classism.
What will the UK look like now, and who is Keir Starmer?
Starmer, largely unknown outside of the UK, now takes over from Sunak as PM, and he has a lot of work to do and many Tory mistakes to undo. It’s not a job one would like to have, at this point in time. Before his political career which only began in 2015 upon election to the House of Commons, he was a human rights lawyer and also a public prosecutor. Some have suggested that such a background in law could shape his and Labour’s policies throughout his term. He’s also a self-proclaimed progressive and socialist. After taking over as party leader in 2020, he has had to rebrand and reshape the people’s perception of Labour, paving the way for today’s landslide victory, which is practically unheard of in today’s democracies.
Starmer has pledged to ‘renew’ the UK and begin his ‘important work’ with immediate effect, as he says the ‘work of change begins’. He has also suggested that Labour will not follow in the footsteps of the Tories with five PMs in 14 years, culture wars, and Brexit.
This incoming government will have to deal with the legacies of Tory rule — homelessness, child poverty, unemployment and inflation, and also a declining presence on the international stage. But the top priority is to get the economy back in shape, and that will be the incoming Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves’ top job.
It remains to be seen if this Labour government can fulfill their mandate and restore Brits’ trust in their government.
A moveable feast for thought: are these results more chance than effort on Labour’s part? What comes next, and will they be able to hold on to power in the next few years?
France Legislative Elections — round one done, round two today
As I’m writing this, volunteers and civil servants have begun the work of setting up polling booths all over France and overseas, as the French prepare to head back to the polls for the second round of the Législatives. But first, a summary of what went down on Sunday night as the National Rally (le Rassemblement national, RN) won a large majority of constituencies all across France.
Round one results
The far-right RN won a staggering (yup, it’s substantial for France) 29.25% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front (le Nouveau Front populaire, NFP) came in second with 27.99%, and Macron’s Ensemble limped behind with just 20.04%. This came even as voter turnout was the highest in decades, at 66.71%.
76 deputies were directly elected (meaning in these 76 constituencies, voters will not be voting again in the second round today), including 37 from the RN, 32 from the NFP, and 2 from Ensemble.
The aftermath
Following that, large-scale protests erupted in Paris, Lyon, and other cities against the far-right, as disillusioned young voters called out what seems to be mainly the older generations voting for the RN.
La France Insoumise (LFI) leader and also prominent figure in the NFP coalition Jean-Luc Mélenchon said in his speech that NFP candidates would be withdrawing in constituencies with three-way fights where the RN candidate came in first, and if the NFP came in third.
Ensemble has also withdrawn most of its candidates in a similar situation, but was more vague in its stance. While Mélenchon made it clear that NFP voters should simply vote for the non-RN candidate in the second round, Ensemble / Macron’s allies have said their camp’s voters should not back an NFP candidate from LFI. It’s a loose ‘Republican front’ against the far-right.
224 candidates have withdrawn their candidacy to block the RN from coming to power, including 134 from the NFP and 82 from Ensemble, reducing the number of three-way and even four-way fights to 91, with most of them not being led by the RN anyway.
What to look out for in the second round
Many from the left and centre, and even the right, have framed the upcoming second round of the legislative elections as a fight for France’s soul and what it means to be French, standing up against the far-right and populist politics that could potentially devastate not just French society, but also the economy.
The relief is that latest polls have suggested that a RN majority could be blocked, and that the RN would only be able to gain at most 220 seats, falling short of 289 (the majority needed).
This would however pose another dilemma in the form of a hung government, with no political party gaining sufficient seats to form a majority.
So what’s next?
Should such a situation arise, Macron has a few options.
He could continue to name RN leader Jordan Bardella as PM (given that the RN would still control more seats compared to other parties), but Bardella has stated that he would not accept an appointment should the RN and its allies not win a clear majority. But this could change, as it could merely be a tactic to get traditionally right-wing voters to vote for the far-right.
Macron could also form a broad coalition with the NFP parties and right-wing parties, but he has made it clear that should such a need arise, the coalition would not include Mélenchon’s LFI.
Of course, Macron could also postpone the formation of a new government until after the Olympics, and entrust Gabriel Attal to lead a caretaker government, then deal with the results of the elections after the Games. This could lead to a higher risk of civil unrest during the Games itself, which would not bode well for the country.
Either way, Macron has very little he can do in the face of what looks to be a crushing defeat for Ensemble, and for the next few years of his term (which ends in 2027), he will have to deal with a divided government and likely stalemates in the passing of legislation.
A moveable feast for thought: how will France look like in each of the above scenarios? Will France be able to maintain its (declining) hold on the European balance of power, as well as on the world stage? How will all this shape the 2027 presidential elections?
Today’s recommendations
That’s all for today’s focus issue! After this hectic elections week (and another analysis on France’s election results after tomorrow), we’ll be back to our regularly scheduled programming and talk about things NOT related to the elections
Articles
Foreign Policy: What Would a Far-Right Victory Mean for French Foreign Policy?
CNA: Israeli strike kills 16 at Gaza school, military says it targeted gunmen
The New York Times: In Immunity Decision, Clashing Views of the Nature of Politics
Song of the day
Videos of the day
Morning Brew - Why Nike is Facing its Worst Performance in Years
inayah - you’ll never “feel like it”